Good Signs Abound: “Insightful” Newsletter #2, May 2021

For this month’s installment of Insightful, we’re taking a look at how dental production for the first four months of 2021 compares to the same period for 2019 – before we could even have imagined the pandemic.

From Sikka’s Industry Trends page, here’s production across the entire United States over the past three calendar years:

2021 is the green line, while 2019 is the yellow line. Look at just how closely they’re tracking over the past month and a half. The lines are almost on top of each other for the most recent week! (Obviously, 2020 was far different.)

The key takeaway from the comparison of 2021 and 2019 is that 2021 is already on par or better with even though many states and localities have yet to open back up. Thus, we can expect to see 2021 start to pull ahead of 2019 in the coming months. In fact, we can already see it in a state like Florida, which opened up much more aggressively, months ago:

Here, looking at data just for the state of Florida, we see that the green line, 2021, has been roughly 10% or more ahead of 2019 (again, the yellow line) for nearly every week so far this year.

And these trends aren’t just due to population growth – as you may have read, the recently-announced census results showed historically low rates of population expansion.

With the tri-state area of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut set to remove capacity limits on most activities on May 19, and considering that it makes up just under 10% of the overall U.S. population as of 2019, per the brand-new census, we should start to see a significant divergence between the green and yellow lines on the full-U.S. production comparison chart within the next few months. We will certainly follow up in a future installment of Insightful to see if our prediction was indeed correct.

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